Steam wishlist conversion rate: how it is calculated and what is typical

Wishlist conversion is usually measured as units sold in the first seven days divided by wishlists at launch. GameDiscoverCo found a median of 0.15 sales per launch wishlist for games launching with more than 25,000 wishlists in the year to August 2025, and 0.10 for games priced above $10.00. Valve says no formula predicts sales from wishlists.

Last reviewed · SteamStats team

Three ratios that all get called conversion

Studios, newsletters and tools use the word conversion for different ratios. They are not interchangeable, and comparing one with another is the most common reason two published numbers seem to disagree.

  • Wishlists at launch: every wishlist addition up to release day, minus deletions and purchases. This outstanding balance is the denominator in each ratio below.
  • Launch ratio: units sold in the first seven days after release divided by wishlists at launch. It counts every buyer, including people who never wishlisted the game, which is why GameDiscoverCo calls its own version not really conversion.
  • Wishlist purchase rate: purchases by people who had the game on their wishlist, as listed in the Steamworks wishlist report, divided by the same launch balance. It measures wishlisters only.
  • Period ratio: sales over a longer window, such as the first month, divided by wishlists at launch. Gamalytic reports a month-one figure next to its week-one figure.

Launch ratio = first-week units ÷ wishlists at launch. Wishlist purchase rate = first-week purchases from the wishlist report ÷ wishlists at launch. Multiplied by 100, either becomes a percentage. Net units, after refunds, keep the ratio comparable with the game's later weeks; the published studies do not all say whether they count gross or net units.

Worked example: Pebblewick's first week

The numbers here are illustrative inputs for Pebblewick, the fictional demo game by Hollow Fern Games, not real sales. Pebblewick launches with 24,000 outstanding wishlists. In its first seven days it sells 3,120 units, and the wishlist report lists 1,872 purchases by people who had it wishlisted.

Pebblewick, first seven days
MeasureCalculationResult
Launch ratio3,120 ÷ 24,00013.00%
Wishlist purchase rate1,872 ÷ 24,0007.80%
Buyers who had not wishlisted(3,120 − 1,872) ÷ 3,12040.00%

A launch ratio of 13.00% sits below GameDiscoverCo's 0.15 median for launches above 25,000 wishlists and above its 0.10 median for games priced over $10.00. With 24,000 wishlists, Pebblewick is just under that study's cut-off, so the 2024 study's median of 10.50% across a broader set of launches is the closer yardstick.

First-week units for 24,000 launch wishlists at each published ratio
Source and groupRatioFirst-week units
GameDiscoverCo 2024, weakest tenth at most1.90%456
GameDiscoverCo 2024, weakest quarter at most4.80%1,152
GameDiscoverCo 2025, priced above $10.0010.00%2,400
GameDiscoverCo 2024, median10.50%2,520
GameDiscoverCo 2025, above 25,000 wishlists15.00%3,600
Gamalytic 2024, week one median22.00%5,280

The same wishlist count gives anything from 456 to 5,280 first-week units, depending on which published ratio is applied. GameDiscoverCo puts the gap between weak and strong converters at a factor of 10 to 20, so a single median says little about one game.

What Steamworks says

there's no formula to accurately predict sales from wishlists
Steamworks: Wishlists
  • The wishlist report tracks additions, purchases and deletions by users who have the game on their wishlist. It is updated once a day for the previous day, and its date is the day in Pacific time.
  • Wishlists by country or region are in the regional sales report of each app.
  • Steam emails wishlisters when the game releases, when it leaves Early Access, and when it is discounted by 20.00% or more for longer than 8 hours, as long as the discount covers the lowest-priced package.
  • With a few exceptions such as the Popular Upcoming tab, wishlists are not a factor in a game's algorithmic visibility. Purchases and play are.

A wishlist is therefore a list of people Steam will notify, not a ranking signal after launch. Conversion measures how many of those notifications, together with organic discovery, turned into purchases.

Why published conversion numbers differ

Published wishlist conversion figures, checked 1 November 2026
SourceGamesWindowMedian
GameDiscoverCo, October 2025Launches with more than 25,000 wishlists, year to August 2025First week0.15 (15.00%)
GameDiscoverCo, same set above $10.00Launches priced above $10.00 at releaseFirst week0.10 (10.00%)
GameDiscoverCo, 2024 pollDevelopers launching with more than 10,000 wishlistsFirst week0.17 (17.00%)
GameDiscoverCo, December 2024Launches from August to October 2024 with a hype score above 250First seven days10.50%; the weakest quarter 4.80% or less; the weakest tenth 1.90% or less
Gamalytic, April 2024About 700 games released after September 2023 with at least 5,000 wishlists and 500 first-month salesFirst week and first month22.00% in week one; 27.00% in month one
  • Who is in the sample. Gamalytic counted only games that sold at least 500 copies in their first month, which leaves out the weakest launches and lifts the median. GameDiscoverCo's 2025 median counts only launches above 25,000 wishlists.
  • Estimated or reported. GameDiscoverCo's 2024 study estimated launch wishlists and seventh-day sales for games it does not own. A studio's own Steamworks reports are exact for its own game.
  • The window. Gamalytic's medians were 22.00% after one week and 27.00% after one month for the same games, so a week-one and a month-one ratio are not comparable.
  • Price and season. GameDiscoverCo found that cheaper games convert better and that the median above $10.00 fell to 0.10. It also saw medians peak in February and August, while December, with the Winter Sale, converted poorly.
  • Who is counted. The launch ratio includes buyers who never wishlisted; the wishlist purchase rate does not. In the example above the two differ by more than five points.

Where to see this in your own data

SteamStats reads the wishlist report every 60 min on Indie, Studio, and Publisher and the sales report every 4 h on Indie and every 60 min on Studio and Publisher, using your own Steamworks key. The Wishlists view shows daily adds, deletes and net. The Sales view splits units into bought from a wishlist and bought without one, next to the wishlists still waiting, which are the two numerators of the ratios above. Both views are part of Indie, Studio, and Publisher.

The Wishlists and Sales feature pages linked below show both views with the demo game's data.

Sources