Steam wishlist conversion estimator: first-week sales from wishlists

Enter the wishlists a game will launch with to get a first-week sales band. Low applies 4.80%, the weakest quarter of 2024 launches; Expected applies the published median that fits the wishlist count and price; High applies 22.00%, Gamalytic's median. It is an estimate band from studies of other games, not a promise.

Last reviewed · SteamStats team

Launch price

First-week units, estimate band

1,152 to 5,280 units, 2,520 expected

Low
1,152 units
4.80% of wishlists
Expected
2,520 units
10.50% of wishlists
High
5,280 units
22.00% of wishlists

Expected uses GameDiscoverCo, December 2024: median of August to October 2024 launches, because the October 2025 medians only cover launches above 25,000 wishlists. An estimate band from published studies, not a promise of sales.

Every published ratio applied to 24,000 wishlists
Source and groupRatioFirst-week units
GameDiscoverCo, December 2024: weakest tenth of launches at most1.90%456
GameDiscoverCo, December 2024: weakest quarter of launches at most4.80%1,152
GameDiscoverCo, October 2025: median for games priced above $10 at launch10.00%2,400
GameDiscoverCo, December 2024: median of August to October 2024 launches10.50%2,520
GameDiscoverCo, October 2025: median for launches above 25,000 wishlists15.00%3,600
Gamalytic, April 2024: week-one median of games with 500 or more first-month sales22.00%5,280

Worked example: Pebblewick at launch

The estimator opens with illustrative inputs for Pebblewick, the fictional demo game by Hollow Fern Games: 24,000 outstanding wishlists at launch and a price above $10.00. That is just under the 25,000 line of the October 2025 study, so Expected uses the December 2024 median of 10.50%: 2,520 first-week units, inside a band from 1,152 (Low) to 5,280 (High).

Method and formula

  1. First-week units = wishlists at launch × ratio, rounded to a whole unit. Wishlists at launch means the outstanding balance on release day: additions minus deletions and purchases.
  2. Low uses 4.80%: in GameDiscoverCo's December 2024 study, a quarter of launches converted at that ratio or less.
  3. Expected uses a median. Above 25,000 wishlists it is GameDiscoverCo's October 2025 median of 15.00%, or 10.00% for games priced above $10.00. At 25,000 or fewer it is the December 2024 median of 10.50%, which covered a broader set of launches.
  4. High uses 22.00%, Gamalytic's April 2024 week-one median, the highest median published.
  5. The table under the result applies every published ratio to the same wishlists, so the spread between sources is visible.

Assumptions and sources

Published ratios behind the band
StudyGames and windowRatioSource
GameDiscoverCo, October 2025Launches above 25,000 wishlists in the year to August 2025, first week15.00% median; 10.00% for games above $10.00GameDiscoverCo: The state of Steam wishlist conversions (17 October 2025), checked 1 November 2026
GameDiscoverCo, December 2024Launches from August to October 2024 with a hype score above 250, first seven days; estimated, not reported10.50% median; weakest quarter 4.80% or less; weakest tenth 1.90% or lessGameDiscoverCo: Revealed, new data on Steam wishlist conversions (3 December 2024), checked 1 November 2026
Gamalytic, April 2024About 700 games released after September 2023 with at least 5,000 wishlists and 500 first-month sales, first week22.00% medianGamalytic: Exploring the Steam wishlist to sale ratio (29 April 2024), checked 1 November 2026
ValveSteamworks wishlist documentationNo formula; Valve says sales cannot be predicted accurately from wishlistsSteamworks: Wishlists, checked 1 November 2026

Why the sources differ

  • Sample. Gamalytic counted only games with at least 500 first-month sales, which leaves the weakest launches out and lifts its median. GameDiscoverCo's 2025 median counts only launches above the wishlist line.
  • Estimated or reported. GameDiscoverCo's 2024 figures are estimates for games it does not own; a studio's own Steamworks reports are exact for its own game.
  • Price and season. Cheaper games converted better, and GameDiscoverCo saw medians peak in February and August and fall in December, with the Winter Sale.
  • Spread. GameDiscoverCo puts the gap between weak and strong converters at a factor of 10 to 20, so the band is wide on purpose.

Limits

  • The ratios count every first-week buyer, including people who never wishlisted the game, so they are launch ratios rather than the share of wishlisters who bought.
  • Genre, reviews in the first days, launch discount, streamers and the week's competition move a single game far outside any median. A game's own data replaces this band as soon as it has some.
  • The studies cover 2023 to 2025 launches. They are dated here and are checked again when the page is reviewed.

With your own Steamworks data

SteamStats reads the game's own wishlist report every 60 min on Indie, Studio, and Publisher and its sales every 4 h on Indie and every 60 min on Studio and Publisher. After launch the Sales view splits units into bought from a wishlist and bought without one, and the forecast projects net revenue to year end and over the first year from the game's own sales as Low, Expected, High and Viral, instead of medians from other games. Both are part of Indie, Studio, and Publisher.

Sources